Thiruvananthapuram, May 6: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has recorded a modest rise in its vote share in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections, signaling incremental growth in a state where it has historically struggled to gain a strong foothold. Preliminary estimates show that while the alliance improved its performance compared to the 2021 Assembly elections, it fell short of the gains it had achieved during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the principal party within the NDA, secured notable vote shares in several constituencies, crossing the 30 percent mark in multiple seats. However, this did not translate into a significant increase in seats, with the alliance winning only three constituencies.
NDA Vote Share Shows Incremental Growth
According to early figures, the NDA’s overall vote share in the 2026 Assembly elections stands at 14.2 percent. This marks an increase of nearly two percentage points from the 12.41 percent it secured in the 2021 state polls. The rise indicates a gradual consolidation of the alliance’s voter base in Kerala, a state traditionally dominated by the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF).
However, the latest figures also highlight a decline when compared to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where the NDA had achieved a significantly higher vote share of 19.26 percent. The drop of over five percentage points suggests that the parliamentary momentum did not fully carry over into the state elections.
In comparison, the NDA had secured 14.71 percent of votes in the recent local body elections, placing the current Assembly performance broadly in line with its local-level support.
Limited Seats but Expanding Influence
Despite improving its vote share, the NDA managed to win only three seats in the 2026 Assembly elections. This reflects a continuing challenge for the alliance in converting vote share gains into electoral victories under Kerala’s competitive political landscape.
However, the BJP’s performance across constituencies suggests a widening presence. The party crossed the 30 percent vote share threshold in several seats, indicating deeper penetration beyond its traditional urban pockets.
Political observers note that such trends could signal a long-term shift, even if immediate electoral gains remain limited.
Nemom Emerges as BJP’s Stronghold
The highest vote share for the BJP was recorded in Nemom, where the party secured 40.75 percent of the votes. The constituency continues to stand out as one of the BJP’s strongest bases in Kerala.
BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar won the seat, reinforcing Nemom’s reputation as a key center of support for the party. The result reflects sustained organizational strength and voter consolidation in the constituency.
Nemom has historically been significant for the BJP in Kerala, and the latest result further strengthens its strategic importance for the party’s future electoral plans.
Victories in Chathannoor and Kazhakkoottam
Apart from Nemom, the NDA registered victories in Chathannoor and Kazhakkoottam.
In Chathannoor, BJP candidate B. B. Gopakumar secured a win with a margin of 4,012 votes. The party recorded a vote share of 38.04 percent in the constituency, marking a strong performance in a competitive seat.
Kazhakkoottam also delivered a win for the NDA, with former Union Minister V. Muraleedharan emerging victorious. The BJP secured 35.06 percent of the votes in the constituency, further underscoring its ability to compete effectively in select regions.
These wins, though limited in number, demonstrate that the BJP can convert vote share into victories in certain constituencies where it has built sustained support.
Strong Showing but Narrow Losses in Key Seats
The NDA also put up competitive performances in several constituencies where it did not win but finished as the runner-up.
In Manjeshwar, BJP leader K. Surendran secured 36.05 percent of the votes but finished second behind the UDF candidate. The result highlights the party’s strong presence in the constituency, even though it fell short of victory.
Similarly, the BJP finished second in Kasaragod, Palakkad, Thiruvalla, Attingal, and Malampuzha. These results indicate that the party is increasingly emerging as a serious contender in multiple regions.
In Palakkad, senior leader Shobha Surendran contested and helped the party secure 33.33 percent of the vote. While the seat did not convert into a win, the vote share reflects growing support.
Vote Share Above 30% in Multiple Constituencies
One of the most significant takeaways from the election is the BJP’s ability to cross the 30 percent vote share mark in several constituencies.
Notable performances include:
- Kasaragod: 31.74%
- Attingal: 30.54%
- Thiruvalla: 30.6%
- Malampuzha: 30.13%
- Thiruvananthapuram: 30.2%
These figures suggest that the party is building a stable voter base in diverse parts of the state.
In addition, the BJP recorded vote shares close to 30 percent in constituencies such as Natika (29%) and Vattiyoorkavu (29%), indicating near-breakthrough performances.
Other constituencies where the party registered notable vote shares include Kozhikode North (28.6%), Kattakkada (26.4%), Pala (26.4%), Kozhikode South (25.6%), Ottapalam (25.5%), Poonjar (25.3%), Nedumangad (25%), and Thrissur (23.4%).
What the Numbers Indicate
The NDA’s performance in the 2026 Kerala Assembly elections reflects a mixed outcome. On one hand, the alliance has improved its vote share compared to the previous Assembly elections and maintained consistency with its local body election performance.
On the other hand, the decline from the 2024 Lok Sabha vote share indicates that the alliance has not yet been able to sustain peak electoral momentum across different types of elections.
The BJP’s ability to cross 30 percent vote share in multiple constituencies is particularly significant. In a state dominated by bipolar competition between the LDF and UDF, such figures suggest that the BJP is gradually positioning itself as a third force with expanding influence.
Broader Political Context
Kerala’s political landscape has long been characterized by alternating power between the LDF and UDF. The NDA has historically struggled to break into this pattern, often securing limited vote shares and minimal representation in the Assembly.
However, over the past decade, the BJP has focused on strengthening its organizational structure, expanding its grassroots presence, and targeting specific constituencies where it sees growth potential.
The results of the 2026 Assembly elections indicate that these efforts are beginning to yield measurable outcomes, even if they have not yet translated into a large number of seats.
Public Impact and Electoral Significance
For voters, the NDA’s improved performance introduces a more competitive dynamic in certain constituencies. In areas where the BJP has crossed the 30 percent mark, future elections could witness closer contests and shifting political equations.
The rise in vote share may also influence how other political parties strategize in upcoming elections, particularly in constituencies where margins are narrowing.
For the BJP, the results offer both encouragement and a clear indication of the work ahead. While the party has succeeded in expanding its voter base, converting that support into electoral victories remains a key challenge.
The NDA’s performance also highlights the importance of local factors, candidate selection, and constituency-level strategies in determining outcomes in Kerala’s political environment.
Looking Ahead
The 2026 Kerala Assembly election results suggest that the NDA is gradually strengthening its presence in the state, even as it continues to face structural challenges in breaking the dominance of the LDF and UDF.
The increase in vote share, combined with strong performances in several constituencies, provides a foundation for future growth. However, sustaining and building on these gains will require consistent effort, strategic planning, and deeper engagement with voters across regions.
As Kerala’s political landscape evolves, the NDA’s trajectory will remain a key area to watch in the run-up to future elections.
Inputs and images : Hindusthan Samachar
Edited By E. Devanshi varma
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Last Updated on: Wednesday, May 6, 2026 2:56 pm by E. Devanshi Varma | Published by: E. Devanshi Varma on Wednesday, May 6, 2026 2:56 pm | News Categories: News
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